Adobe has released its online shopping predictions for the upcoming holiday season.
Based on its analytics research, Adobe expects that online sales this holiday season will be $107.4 billion, an increase of 13.8%, while in-store retail is expected to grow 10%.
Cyber Monday is expected to become the largest online shopping day in history, generating $6.6 billion in sales, 16.5% growth compared to last year. Sales on Thanksgiving Day are expected to increase 15% year over year to $2.8 billion. One out of every six dollars this holiday season will be spent between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, leading to $19.7 billion in sales.
While large retailers with more than $100 million in annual revenue will see higher order values and desktop conversion rates than smaller retailers at less than $10 million in annual revenue, the latter are expected to have the mobile advantage with a higher average conversion rate of 1.9% by attracting more shoppers with an intent to buy.
Adobe analytics data also forecasts that shoppers will gravitate towards purchasing more lower-priced items online as opposed to big ticket items. While toys and apparel saw a 39% and 20% unit growth respectively last holiday season, jewelry sales came in low, with a 3% decline in unit growth. These trends are expected to continue this season.
While desktop purchases are predicted to account for two-thirds of revenue this holiday season, mobile is serving as a starting point for many consumers. For the first time, web traffic on smartphones and tablets is predicted to be higher than for desktops, at 54% and 46% respectively.
“This year’s record-breaking online holiday shopping season is built on the strength of the big players,” said Mickey Mericle, vp/marketing and insights at Adobe. “We predict the biggest retailers with wide selections, easy shopping experiences and free shipping, to drive online holiday growth this year. Still, there is opportunity for savvy small retailers to win, specifically with mobile experiences. As revenue growth plateaus, retailers will be competing hard for customers by offering steep discounts and providing a seamless customer journey.”
Adobe said its retail report is based on an analysis of one trillion visits to over 4,500 retail sites and 55 million SKUs. Adobe analytics measures 80% of online transactions at the largest 100 U.S. web retailers.