Holiday retail sales should rise a healthy 4% to 4.5% year over year, according to Deloitte’s annual retail holiday sales forecast.
Deloitte’s retail and distribution practice determined that total holiday sales, seasonally adjusted and excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, would reach $1.04 to $1.05 trillion in the period between November and January.
On the digital side of the ledger, Deloitte forecast an 18% to 21% increase in e-commerce holiday sales in 2017 versus 2016, with the total reaching $111 to $114 billion during the 2017 season.
“The projected uptick in holiday sales ties to four primary factors affecting consumer spending, starting with anticipated strong personal income growth,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s senior U.S. economist. “Last year, disposable personal income grew 2% over the year to the holiday period, and we may see that rise to a range of 3.8% to 4.2% this season. Consumer confidence remains elevated, the labor market is strong and the personal savings rate should remain stable at its current low level.”