The National Retail Federation is predicting sales during November and December will grow 3.6%, a figure that if attained would be above the 10-year average for holiday season sales growth.
Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist with the NRF, said the steady job and income gains seen throughout the year have resulted in continued consumer confidence and the greater use of credit. This, he said, bodes well for more spending throughout the holiday season.
“All of the fundamentals are in a good place, giving strength to consumers and leading us to believe that this will be a very positive holiday season,” added Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “This year hasn’t been perfect, starting with a long summer and unseasonably warm fall, but our forecast reflects the very realistic steady momentum of the economy and industry expectations.”
Over the past decade, holiday sales have increased an average of 2.5% and 3.4% over the past seven years since the post-recession recovery started.
In addition, the NRF is also forecasting non-store sales to increase between 7% and 10%.
NRF’s holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales releases. The overall forecast includes the non-store category featuring direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales.